PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Edin Terzić’s aspect have the benefit heading to the French capital however can Luis Enrique’s males come again? We sit up for Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League semi-final with our PSG vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and preview.

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: The Fast Hits

• Paris Saint-Germain are the favourites to win on the night time in opposition to Borussia Dortmund, with the hosts succeeding in 60.6% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
• PSG might grow to be the primary aspect to lose the primary leg in each the quarter-finals and semi-finals of a UEFA Champions League marketing campaign and nonetheless progress to the ultimate.
• Kylian Mbappé has managed 32 direct aim involvements within the 31 dwelling video games he’s began on this competitors (21 targets, 11 assists).

Match Preview

Luis Enrique shall be underneath no phantasm that is the competitors Qatar Sports activities Funding need Paris Saint-Germain to win. The Parisian have already secured the Ligue 1 title however their UEFA Champions League hopes cling within the stability forward of Tuesday’s second-leg assembly with Borussia Dortmund within the semi-finals.

Parc des Princes will play host to an attractive European assembly as Dortmund head to the French capital with a slender 1-0 result in defend from the primary conflict at Sign Iduna Park. Niclas Füllkrug’s emphatic first-half end is the one factor separating these two sides, although PSG are on acquainted territory having to make up floor.

Following their 6-4 comeback win on mixture over Barcelona within the earlier spherical, PSG might grow to be the primary aspect to lose the primary leg in each the quarter-finals and semi-finals of a Champions League marketing campaign and nonetheless progress to succeed in the ultimate.

It might have been so completely different heading into Tuesday, although, as Kylian Mbappé and Achraf Hakimi have been each denied by the woodwork within the first assembly. Certainly, PSG recorded 14 pictures within the opener in opposition to Dortmund, their most with out scoring in a Champions League recreation since their 2020-21 semi-final second leg in opposition to Manchester Metropolis (14 – misplaced 2-0).

Mbappé will fancy his possibilities on the largest of European nights as soon as extra, although. The French ahead has been straight concerned in 32 targets in 31 dwelling video games he’s began within the Champions League (21 targets, 11 assists).

Solely as soon as beforehand has Mbappé failed to attain in each legs of a knockout stage tie within the competitors when beginning in each matches. That got here in opposition to long-term suitors Actual Madrid within the spherical of 16 in 2017-18.

Mbappé has additionally created essentially the most possibilities underneath strain (23) of any participant within the Champions League this season, though none of these have been transformed by a PSG teammate. The famous person ahead will probably begin via the center as soon as extra, with Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele on both flank of Luis Enrique’s star-studded lineup.

But Edin Terzić has his personal high quality to name upon, with Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer boasting essentially the most assists underneath strain (5) within the competitors this time period. Regardless of not scoring, Jadon Sancho stole the present final trip in opposition to PSG, finishing 13 dribbles – essentially the most by a participant in a knockout stage recreation within the Champions League since Neymar versus Atalanta in August 2020 (15 for PSG).

General, Manchester United loanee Sancho has accomplished extra dribbles (22) than another participant within the knockout phases of the UEFA’s prime membership match this time period, and PSG full-back Nuno Mendes should still be having nightmares from final Wednesday night time.

Dortmund’s preparations for this might not have gone significantly better both, hammering Augsburg 5-1 on Saturday as Youssoufa Moukoko (2), Donyell Malen, Marco Reus and Felix Nmecha have been all on course at Sign Iduna Park. Karim Adeyemi sustained a knock in that win however ought to be nice, whereas Sébastien Haller and Julian Ryerson ought to overcome health points to characteristic.

Ramy Bensebaïni and Julien Duranville stay out for Dortmund, whereas PSG shall be with out Lucas Hernández, who joins Presnel Kimpembe, Layvin Kurzawa and Sergio Rico as long-term absentees after his regarding ACL damage within the first leg.

Hernández’s absence will probably imply Beraldo begins as PSG intention to succeed in a European Cup/Champions League closing for simply the second time (beforehand in 2019-20). Dortmund might achieve this for the third time of their historical past, after 1996-97 and 2012-13; the latter being the final time the ultimate of this competitors was performed at Wembley Stadium.

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head

This would be the eighth assembly between PSG and Dortmund in European competitors, with each side successful two video games apiece to this point (three attracts).

Nonetheless, all 4 of the victories recorded on this fixture have been by the group taking part in at dwelling, which can have Luis Enrique hopeful heading into this semi-final assembly.

Terzić could also be involved, too, as Dortmund have confronted PSG away from dwelling in Europe on three events however have by no means gained (D1 L2) or scored on any of these journeys.

The Bundesliga aspect have been crushed 2-0 away to the French aspect on this season’s group stage in September after Mbappé’s penalty and a aim for Hakimi, with Dortmund solely managing one shot on course in that recreation.

Latest Type

Terzić wants a minor miracle to maintain PSG at bay on Tuesday given the Parisians have solely failed to attain in two of their final 38 dwelling video games within the Champions League (93 targets scored on this run).

Dortmund’s Bundesliga rivals Bayern Munich have been the group to maintain a clear sheet on each of these events (1-0 in February 2023 and April 2021), although PSG have been removed from convincing on this season’s competitors.

Luis Enrique’s aspect have trailed on the scoreboard (339 minutes) for longer than they’ve been forward (291 minutes) within the Champions League this marketing campaign. They’ve additionally conceded the opening aim in every of their final three video games within the competitors, their longest such run since April 2015 (4).

But Dortmund have considerably benefitted fortuitously this time period, too. Terzić’s males have the largest distinction between targets conceded and anticipated targets in opposition to on this season’s competitors (+10.7 – 9 conceded from 19.7 xG in opposition to).

The one two situations of a group hitting the woodwork twice and failing to attain in a recreation within the competitors this time period have been each in opposition to Dortmund – PSG within the first leg and Newcastle in October 2023 – and Terzić will hope that fortune doesn’t run out.

Opta Energy Rankings

The Opta Energy Rankings are a worldwide group rating system that assigns a capability rating to over 13,000 home soccer groups on a scale between zero and 100, the place zero is the worst-ranked group on this planet and 100 is the most effective group on this planet.

Forward of kick-off on Tuesday, right here is the Opta Energy Rating for each side.

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

The Opta supercomputer struggled to see something apart from a second-leg win for PSG, who triumphed in 60.6% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

A draw would ship Dortmund into the ultimate, with that outcome forecast in 20.3%, whereas an unlikely away win was predicted much less usually in 19% of data-led sims.

Which means Dortmund have a dominant 61% probability of constructing the showpiece at Wembley, based on Opta’s match predictions, whereas they go all the way in which to win the competitors in 22.9%.

In distinction, PSG’s hopes of semi-final development sit at simply 39% with their 17.2% chance of lifting the trophy the fewest behind Bayern (18.2%), Dortmund and favourites Actual Madrid (41.6%).

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund UCL Squads

Paris Saint-Germain: Keylor Navas, Alexandre Letellier, Arnau Tenas, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Nordi Mukiele, Lucas Beraldo, Milan Skriniar, Manuel Ugarte, Fabián Ruiz, Danilo, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Ethan Mbappé, Senny Mayulu, Kylian Mbappé, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola.

Head Coach: Luis Enrique